世界溶解浆生产消费情况及未来发展趋势

文中总结分析了1961—2017年世界溶解浆生产和消费情况。溶解浆的生产和消费呈现由发达国家（地区）向发展中国家（地区）转移的趋势短期内不会改变。溶解浆生产属于技术和资金密集型产业，随着中国和印度等发展中国家制浆造纸工业的技术进步，溶解浆的生产量将增加，进口占比逐年降低。世界溶解浆的生产和消费量在今后若干年内仍呈增长趋势。2017年世界溶解浆的消耗量为792.9万t，进口量占比为64.3%。乐观预测到2030年世界溶解浆消费量将达到1 230万t，在2017年的基础上增加60%。中国是世界最大的溶解浆生产国、进口国和消费国，但溶解浆的生产成本居高不下，浆料品质不够稳定，与先进国家存在一定差距。亟待投入研究力量，开发适宜的溶解浆生产工艺，提升溶解浆质量并降低生产成本。

World Production and Consumption of Dissolving Pulp and Its Future Development Trend

The world production and consumption of dissolving pulp from 1961 to 2017 are summarized and analyzed. The shift of dissolving pulp production and consumption from developed countries (regions) to developing countries (regions) is a trend that will not be changed in the near future. Dissolving pulp production is a technology-and capital-intensive industry. Supported by the pulp and paper industry technology progress, developing countries such as China and India will increase the production of dissolving pulp, and reduce the proportion of imports year by year. The world production and consumption of dissolving pulp will continue to increase in the coming years. In 2017, the world consumption of dissolving pulp was 7.929 million tons, while the import volume accounted for 64.3% of the international trade volume. Optimistically estimated, the world consumption of dissolving pulp will reach 1.23 million tons by 2030, an increase of 60% on the basis of 2017. China is the world's largest producer, importer and consumer of dissolving pulp, but its production cost remains high and the quality of dissolving pulp unstable, with a great gap from the advanced countries in dissolving production. It is urgent to invest in the research, develop appropriate production process of dissolving pulp, improve the quality of dissolving pulp and reduce production costs.