森林认证对森林转型的影响——来自发展中国家的经验证据

森林转型理论总结了长期以来各国实现森林恢复的影响因素与作用机制。20世纪90年代以来，森林认证作为促进森林可持续经营的市场机制在世界范围内逐渐展开。文中基于1990-2010年76个发展中国家的面板数据，运用分位数回归方法定量分析森林认证对森林转型的影响。研究结果表明，森林认证对森林面积和森林蓄积量都具有显著的正向影响，且在森林资源相对缺乏的发展中国家影响更大；研究还发现，人口密度和人均GDP对森林面积和森林蓄积量具有显著的负向影响，而造林面积、林产品进口额以及非初级产品出口比重等对森林面积和森林蓄积量都具有显著的正向影响。

Effects of Forest Certification on Forest Transition: Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries

The forest transition theory summarizes the influencing factors and working mechanism of forest restoration in certain countries. Since the 1990s, forest certification has been gradually promoted in the world as a market mechanism to promote sustainable forest management. Based on the panel data of 76 developing countries from 1990 to 2010, the effects of forest certification on forest transition were quantitatively analyzed using the quantile regression method. The research results show that forest certification has significantly positive effects on forest cover and forest volume, especially in the developing countries where forest resources are relatively scarce. The study also finds that the population density and per capita GDP have significantly negative effects on forest cover and forest volume, while the afforested area, the value of forest products imports and the proportion of non-primary products export have significantly positive influence on forest cover and forest volume.