| 佛罗里达州柑桔投资的远景展望——GAMS仿真的案例 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈秉钧,Spreen T H,Moss C B. 佛罗里达州柑桔投资的远景展望——GAMS仿真的案例[J]. 农业工程学报, 1995, 11(2): 42-47 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈秉钧 Spreen T H Moss C B |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江农业大学;美国佛罗里达大学;美国佛罗里达大学 |
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| 基金项目： | Supported by China National Educational Committee during the period of academic Visiting in UFL,U.S.A. |
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| 摘 要： | 运用GAMS仿真展示了美国佛罗里达州柑桔生产投资的经济远景。仿真动态地、定量地回答了长期投资决策中的五个关键因素:期望净投资回收率、最低竞争价格、最大可接受的贷款利率、新建桔园的最优种植计划、最早获得盈利的年份(以净现值为表征)。该项研究有助于投资者作出正确的投资决策。
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| 关 键 词： | 柑桔 GAMS仿真 投资决策 经济远景 净现值 纯回收率 |
| 收稿时间： | 1995-01-15 |
Economic Outlook of Citrus Investment in Florida: A Case of GAMS Simulation |
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| Chen Bingjun,Spreen T H and Moss C B. Economic Outlook of Citrus Investment in Florida: A Case of GAMS Simulation[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 1995, 11(2): 42-47 |
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| Authors: | Chen Bingjun Spreen T H Moss C B |
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| Affiliation: | Chen Bingjun(Zhejiang Agricultural University)Spreen T H Moss C B(University of Florida U. S. A) |
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| Abstract: | The study demonstrates the economic outlook of citrus production investment in Florida,U. S. A. by the GAMS simulation. Five basic factors of decision-making of investment in long term were drawn dynamically and quantitatively with simulation. These factors are: expected net invest-on-return, minimum competition price, maximum acceptable interest rate, optimized schedule for new citrus planting, earliest year of receiving positive profits (net present value). The results are benificial for investors to make their correct decision-making prior to investment. |
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| Keywords: | Citrus GAMS simulation Investment decision-making Economic outlook Net present value Net return rate |
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