Contribution of cultivar,fertilizer and weather to yield variation of winter wheat over three decades: A case study in the North China Plain |
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| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, The Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050021, China;2. Hebei Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050051, China;1. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Hebei Laboratory of Agricultural Water-Saving, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 286 Huaizhong Road, Shijiazhuang, 050021, China;2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China;1. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, The Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, 286 Huaizhong Road, Shijiazhuang 050021, Hebei, China;2. CSIRO Agriculture Flagship, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia;3. Institute of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Hebei Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Science, Shijiazhuang 050051, Hebei, China;1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China;2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China;3. College of Resources and Environment/Sino-Danish Center, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 10049, China;1. National Key Laboratory of Crop Genetic Improvement, MOA Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, No. 1 Shizishan Street, Hongshan District, Wuhan, Hubei 430070, China;2. Agricultural Bureau of Wuxue City, Hubei Province 436400, China;3. Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Grain Industry, Yangtze University, Hubei, 434023, China;1. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;3. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;1. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, The Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, 286 Huaizhong Road, Shijiazhuang 050021, PR China;2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China;3. Graduate School of Bioresources, Mie University, Japan |
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| Abstract: | Long-term field measured yield data provides good opportunity to assess the impacts of climate and management on crop production. This study used the yield results from a long-term field experiment (1979–2012) at Luancheng Experimental Station in the central part of the North China Plain (NCP) to analyze the seasonal yield variation of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under the condition of sufficient water supply. The yield change of winter wheat over the last 33 growing seasons was divided into three time periods: the 1980s, the 1990s, and the years of 2001–2012. The grain yield of winter wheat during the 1980s was relative stable. During the 1990s, the annual yield of this crop was continuously increased by 193 kg/ha/year (P < 0.01). While for the past 12 years, yield of winter wheat was maintained at relative higher level, but with larger seasonal yield variation than that back in 1980s. CERES-Wheat model was calibrated and was used to verify the effects of management practices on grain yield. Seven scenarios were simulated with and without improvements in management. The simulated results show that the yield of winter wheat was decreased by 5.3% during 1990s and by 9.2% during the recent 12 seasons, compared with that during 1980s, under the scenario that the yield of winter wheat was solely affected by weather. Seasonal yield variation caused by weather factors was around −39% to 20%, indicating the great effects of weather on yearly yield variation. Yield improvement by cultivars was around 24.7% during 1990s and 52.0% during the recent 12 seasons compared with that during 1980s. The yield improvement by the increase in soil fertility and chemical fertilizer input was 7.4% and 6.8% during the two periods, respectively. The initial higher soil fertility and chemical fertilizer input might be the reasons that the responses of crop production to the further increase in chemical fertilizer were small during the simulation period. Correlation analysis of the grain yield from the field measured data with weather factors showed that sunshine hours and diurnal temperature difference (DTR) were positively, and relative humidity was negatively related to grain yield of winter wheat. The climatic change trends in this area showed that the DTR and sunshine hours were declining. This type of climatic change trend might further negatively affect winter wheat production in the future. |
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| Keywords: | CERES-Wheat model Diurnal temperature range (DTR) Harvest index Biomass Climatic change |
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