林业利用外资与中国林产品对外贸易的关系——兼论金融危机下林业外资对林产品贸易的影响

首先回顾了投资与贸易关系的研究现状, 在分析林业利用外资的现状和林产品对外贸易现状的基础上, 运用1997—2008年的数据, 应用协整方法对利用外资和林产品对外贸易规模进行了长期均衡分析和格兰杰因果研究, 并建立向量自回归模型对二者的动态影响进行研究。结果表明, 利用外资是林产品出口贸易规模的格兰杰因果关系, 并且利用外资对于林产品贸易规模有同向影响。建议进一步优化进出口产品结构, 增加林产品对外贸易总体规模; 着力提高林业外资利用效率和附加值; 进一步协调外资政策、产业政策与贸易政策的关系。

Relationship Between Utilization of Foreign Capital and Foreign Trade of Chinese Forest Products:Impact of Foreign Investment on Trade Under Financial Crisis

The relation of utilization between foreign investment and trade has attracted more and more attention of scholars.The current international financial crisis is bound to have impact on the utilization of foreign capital.The paper studies the relationship between the utilization of foreign capital and the trade amount of Chinese forest products,with the purposes of utilizing foreign capital better and,if possible.circumventing various negative impacts of the international financial crisis.With a summary to the current researches about the relation between foreign investment and foreign trade,the author analyzes the status quo of these two,and uses the methods of cointegration to conduct a long-run equilibrium analysis and Granger causality analysis to study the use of foreign capital and growth of forest products trade on the basis of the data from 1997 to 2008.Furthermore,the vector autoregressive model is established to investigate the dynamic effects of these two.The results show that the use of foreign capital is the Granger causality cause of Chinese forest products trade and that there exists positive impact on the trade.Therefore,the author suggests that we adjust forestry and upgrade the industrial structure,increase the amount of timber international trade,focus on improving the efficiency and added value in the utilization of foreign capital and harmonize the industry policies with trade policies.