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Impact of the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on US and Canada West Coast fisheries: Surprises and lessons from key case studies |
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| Authors: | Christopher M Free Sean C Anderson Elizabeth A Hellmers Barbara A Muhling Michael O Navarro Kate Richerson Lauren A Rogers William H Satterthwaite Andrew R Thompson Jenn M Burt Steven D Gaines Kristin N Marshall J Wilson White Lyall F Bellquist |
| Institution: | 1. Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, USA;2. Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada;3. California Department of Fish and Wildlife, La Jolla, California, USA;4. National Marine Fisheries Service, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, California, USA
Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, USA;5. Department of Natural Sciences, University of Alaska Southeast, Juneau, Alaska, USA;6. National Marine Fisheries Service, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Newport, Oregon, USA;7. National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, Washington, USA;8. National Marine Fisheries Service, Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Santa Cruz, California, USA;9. National Marine Fisheries Service, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, California, USA;10. Nature United, North Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada;11. Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, USA Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, USA;12. National Marine Fisheries Service, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, Washington, USA;13. Coastal Oregon Marine Experiment Station and Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences, Oregon State University, Newport, Oregon, USA;14. The Nature Conservancy, Sacramento, California, USA |
| Abstract: | Marine heatwaves are increasingly affecting marine ecosystems, with cascading impacts on coastal economies, communities, and food systems. Studies of heatwaves provide crucial insights into potential ecosystem shifts under future climate change and put fisheries social-ecological systems through “stress tests” that expose both vulnerabilities and resilience. The 2014–16 Northeast Pacific heatwave was the strongest and longest marine heatwave on record and resulted in profound ecological changes that impacted fisheries, fisheries management, and human livelihoods. Here, we synthesize the impacts of the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on US and Canada West Coast fisheries and extract key lessons for preparing global fisheries science, management, and industries for the future. We set the stage with a brief review of the impacts of the heatwave on marine ecosystems and the first systematic analysis of the economic impacts of these changes on commercial and recreational fisheries. We then examine ten key case studies that provide instructive examples of the complex and surprising challenges that heatwaves pose to fisheries social-ecological systems. These reveal important insights into improving the resilience of monitoring and management and increasing adaptive capacity to future stressors. Key recommendations include: (1) expanding monitoring to enhance mechanistic understanding, provide early warning signals, and improve predictions of impacts; (2) increasing the flexibility, adaptiveness, and inclusiveness of management where possible; (3) using simulation testing to help guide management decisions; and (4) enhancing the adaptive capacity of fishing communities by promoting engagement, flexibility, experimentation, and failsafes. These advancements are important as global fisheries prepare for a changing ocean. |
| Keywords: | climate change climate-adaptive management climate-resilient fisheries ecological surprises harmful algal blooms ocean warming |