六盘水市近50年气温变化特征分析

目的]研究近50年六盘水市气温变化特征。方法]利用六盘水市的六枝、盘县、水城3个测站1960～2009年逐月平均气温资料,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall等方法,对六盘水市近50年气温变化的年际、年代际和突变特征进行分析。结果]近50年来六盘水市气温呈明显的上升趋势,升温率为0.096℃/10a;春季平均气温呈下降趋势,夏、秋、冬季呈上升趋势,上升趋势不一致,且冬季平均气温变化幅度最大,夏、秋次之,春季最小。六盘水市气温在20世纪80年代初以前气温变化不明显,80年代以后气温明显增高,具有明显的波动性质,存在几个突变点,比较明显的突变点出现在1978年,在1978年后年平均气温增温显著。春季气温没有明显的突变现象;夏、秋、冬季气温突变点分别为1978、1982和1985年。结论]该研究为六盘水市的短期气候预测提供参考依据。

Analysis of Characteristics of Temperature in Liupanshui in Recent 50 Years

Objective] The aim was to study the characteristics of temperature changes in Liupanshui in recent 50 years.Method] Based on the monthly temperature data from 3 observational stations in Liupanshui from 1960 to 2009 and by employing the linear method and Mann—Kendall method,features and abrupt changes of temperature in Liupanshui was discussed.Result] The results indicated the temperature in Liu Panshui increased obviously in recent 50 years at a rate of 0.096 ℃/10a.Average temperature in spring was decreasing,but was increasing in summer,autumn and winter at different rate.The average temperature changed the most in winter,followed by summer and autumn and was the least in spring.The temperature changes were not distinct before the early 1980s.Temperature increased significantly after 80s,having distinct waving nature and several mutation points.The distinct mutation point appeared in 1978 and the annual average temperature increased significantly after 1978.There was no obvious mutation of temperature in spring;the mutation points of temperature in summer,autumn and winter were 1978,1982 and 1985.Conclusion] The study provided reference for the short term forecast of climate in Liupanshui City.