浅析马尔科夫链在农机安全监理工作中的应用

对农机牌证管理状态进行科学有效的预测．以便投入适宜的人力、物力和财力，避免造成不必要的浪费或投人不足的情况。因此，最大程度准确地预测某个地区未来的农机牌证管理变化的趋势，是促使农机安全监理事业健康发展的有效方法。介绍一种线性代数中常被许多学科用作预测的数学模型——马尔科夫链，并就该模型在农机牌证管理变化趋势的预测工作中如何应用作粗浅的讨论，以提高预测工作的准确性。

Application of Markov Chain in Safety and Supervision of Agricultural Machinery

The management state of agricultural license is taken scientific and effective predictions so as to input the appropriate human, material and financial resources to avoid the unnecessary waste or investment shortfalls. Therefore, the changing trend of future agricultural license management in a particular region can be accurately predicted at maximum degree, which is an effective manner to promote the healthy development of agricultural machinery safety and supervision. It is introduced a mathematical model used as the forecast in many disciplines - Markov chains, and discussed how to apply the model in the trend forecasting of agricultural machinery license management in order to improve the forecasting accuracy.