蒙特卡罗法在水库塌岸预测中的应用

目前土力学方法预测水库塌岸时还没应用可靠度计算，因为一般预测工作中没有足够的岩土测试结果；但是定值计算的结果毕竟有不确定性，最危险滑动部分是否该作为塌岸处理有时较难决定；基于岩土参数正态分布的特征，针对这一问题作者提出类比参数情况下，蒙特卡罗法中岩土统计参数的获取，计算简单，方便了应用，具有一定的理论和实用价值。

Application of Monte Carlo Trials in Reservoir Bank Erosion Forecast

Soil mechanic with probability analysis has not been applied in reservoir bank erosion because of inadequate testing data for soil.But there is some uncertainty in method of certain factor of safety.Some times whether the critical mass is considered as the mass of bank erosion is still hard to determined.Based on the fact that soil mechanic parameters are confined to normal distribution,the author puts forward a way to obtain the statistic parameter of soil to use Monte Carlo trials under the circumstances that the parameters are attained similarly not from testing but oher project,which is easy to applied into practical work.This idea is promising at some extent in theory and practice.