气候变化对福建省牧草气候生产潜力的影响

以福建省为研究区域,研究牧草生产力与气候条件的关系及其对气候变化的响应.结果表明,近50a来,福建省气温呈现升高趋势,平均每10 a升高0.2℃;年降水量变化总体上呈不显著的增加态势;牧草气候生产潜力随年代的变化呈先减后增的趋势;空间上以厦门地区最高,三明地区最低.降水量对福建省牧草气候生产潜力的影响明显高于气温.若未来温度每降低1℃,降水减少1 mm时,牧草气候生产潜力分别降低318.3 kg·hm~(-2)·a~(-1)和22.7 kg·hm~(-2)a~(-1).

Impacts of Climate Change on Potential Climatic Productivity of Pasture in Fujian Province

Global climate change has far-reaching impact on natural ecosystems and the socio-economic system, which has called for attention of governments and scientific community and even the general public now.In the background of global climate change, the study of the effect of climate change on crop potential production has an important theoretical and practical significance. The relationship between pasture productivity and climate change and the response of the pasture productivity to the climate change were studied with Fujiang, China being a study area, aiming to provide a scientific basis for rational development and utilization of pasture resources against the global climate change in Fujian. The results showed that the annual average temperature of Fujian tended to increase by 0.2 ℃ per 10 years from 1961 to 2007. The annual precipitation has not been increased obviously over the recent 50 years. In the terms of annual change of climatic productivity of pasture, the average pasture productivity on the whole showed a decreasing trend, decreased by 80 kg/hm~2 during the last 50 years. However, the potential climatic productivity of pasture every decade first decrease and then increased. In the spatial structure, the potential climatic productivity of pasture in Xiamen area was 51.06 ton/hm~2, the highest in Fujian Province, increasing by 4.05%; the potential climatic productivity of pasture in Sanming area was 46.1 ton/hm~2, decreasing by 5.9%, the lowest. The precipitation had higher impact on the potential climatic productivity of pasture than the temperature, which is the key factor affecting potential climatic productivity of pasture. The model-based simulation results showed that if temperature dropped by 1℃ and the precipitation increased by 1 mm in the future the potential climatic productivity of pasture would decrease by 318.3 kg/hm~2/a and 22.7 kg/hm~2/a in Fujian Province, respectively.