地面气象因子对广东省稻飞虱危害的影响及其预测

为明确影响广东省稻飞虱发生的关键气象因子和关键时段,为地方政府及相关部门提供稻飞虱危害预测预警.采用相关分析法对广东省1992-2009年水稻稻飞虱发生面积率与同期地面气象因子进行研究,采用两段最小二乘法、曲线回归方法分别建立6、9月份广东省稻飞虱发生面积率长期预测模型.结果表明:稻飞虱发生的关键时段是6、9月份,关键因子是6月份温雨系数、大雨日数、平均风速＜5 m/s的日数;9月份平均气温、平均风速＜5 m/s的日数.稻飞虱发生等级模型预报准确率为83％,2010年发生等级预报结果正确,预报效果较好,能够满足业务服务的需要.

The Influence of Meteorological Factors on Rice Planthopper Occurrence Levels andTheir Predict in Guangdong Province

To ascertain the key meteorological factors and their periods of influencing rice planthopper occurrence levels and provide early warning for local government and related departments in Guangdong Province, the relation between the rice planthopper occurrence areas and corresponding surface meteorological data from 1992 to 2009 was researched by correlation analysis method, and the long-term predicting models of rice planthopper occurrence levels were constructed by least-squares method and curve regression in June and September. The results indicated that June and September were the key periods of rice planthopper occurrence. key meteorological factors included the ratio of precipitation to air temperature, heavy rain days, days of average wind speed<5 m/s in June, and average temperature, days of average wind speed<5 m/s in September. The accuracy of rice planthopper occurrence level models was 83%, and prediction of rice planthopper occurrence level was correct in 2010. The prediction models had high prediction accuracy and could satisfy the needs of operational services.