2013年多模式对抚顺降水预报的检验

为了提高抚顺地区晴雨预报准确率，减少空报和漏报的发生，对2013年1—8月德国数值模式和日本数值模式降水预报产品的48h降水量减去24h降水量作为24h降水预报量进行晴雨预报准确率、降水评分、空报率和漏报率分析。结果表明：德国模式降水预报产品的2762、2863、2763站点和日本模式降水预报产品的3351、3452、3352站点的降水预报值与抚顺、清原、新宾的降水有很好的对应关系；德国和日本模式降水预报产品对抚顺24h降水评分相同，日本模式空报率高，德国模式漏报率高；德国模式晴雨预报准确率高于日本模式；在抚顺的日常24h预报中，德国模式降水预报产品更值得关注。

Precipitation verification of multi-model of 2013 in Fushun

In order to improve the clear-rainy forecast accuracy rate of Fushun, to avoid the occurrence of empty report and omission report, the clear-rainy forecast accuracy rate, TS-score, empty report rate and omission report rate of the 24h precipitation forecast (48h precipitation forecast value minus 24h precipitation forecast value) each from Germany numerical model and Japanese numerical model precipitation forecast products from January to August in 2013 were analyzed. The results indicated that the station 2762, station 2863, station 2763 of Germany numerical model precipitation forecast products and the station 3351, station 3452, station 3352 of Japanese numerical model precipitation forecast products have a good corresponding relation with the precipitation of Fushun national basic weather station, Qingyuan national basic weather station, Xinbin national basic weather station; The Japanese numerical model precipitation forecast products are higher in empty report rate, but the Germany numerical model precipitation forecast products are higher in omission report rate even though the two products have the same TS-score; The Germany numerical model precipitation forecast products are also higher in the clear-rainy forecast accuracy rate; In the daily 24h precipitation forecast the German model precipitation forecast products deserves more attention.