甘肃民勤荒漠气候的稳定性研究

为研究在全球变暖过程中沙漠气候的稳定性，以中国西北部的民勤荒漠区1961—2013年的气象观测资料，运用一次线性趋势线和滑动标准差等方法，分析民勤荒漠气候在响应全球变暖过程中的不稳定性。结果表明：（1）1月和4月的平均气温的不稳定性增大，2月的等温日期提前10.36天。（2）12月和1月的极端最高气温的不稳定性增大，7月的极端最低气温的不稳定性增大，5月的极端最低气温的变异系数高达287.3%。研究结论认为，随着全球变暖民勤荒漠气候的不稳定性增强。气候的稳定性更值得人们关注。

Stability Research on Desert Climate of Minqin County in Gansu Province

Impact of climate instability to agriculture, forestry and animal husbandry production is greater than the temperature continues to rise. This paper analyzes the instability of Minqin desert climate in response to global warming in the process by 1961-2013 years of meteorological data. The results show: 1) Instability of monthly average temperature of January and April is increasing. Isothermal date of February ahead of 10.36d from 1961 to 2013. 2) Extreme maximum temperature of December and January is increasing instability. Extreme minimum temperature of July instability is increasing. The coefficient of variation of extreme minimum temperature of May up to 287.3%. The stability of the climate is more worthy of attention.