中国小麦增产潜力、方向与政策建议

改革开放以来，中国小麦生产快速发展，特别是2004年以来，中国小麦已实现连续9年丰收，这对于保障国内小麦供给和国家粮食安全起到了重要作用。总体来看，小麦持续增产主要得益于单产水平提高。随着农业科技研发和推广的发展，技术进步对小麦生产的贡献越来越大，未来中国小麦增产仍将走稳定面积和提高单产的路子。通过政策推动、投入优化、农田改造、品种改良、技术配套、高产创建等综合措施，中国小麦仍具有一定的增产潜力。

Research on Wheat Production Potential, Trend and Suggestion in China

Since the reform and opening up, the wheat production in China has been developing rapidly. Especially since 2004, China＇s wheat harvest has been increased for nine consecutive years, which played an important role for security of grain supply and the state of domestic wheat safety. Overall, the increase in wheat output is mainly due to the sustained raising of yield level. With the development of agricultural science and technology development and popularization, the contribution of technology progress to wheat production is bigger. In the future, production of wheat in China will continue to rely on the methods of remaining plant area stable and increasing the yield. By means of politics promoting, optimization of investment, breed improvement, technical supporting, high yield and other comprehensive measures, our country still has certain potential yield increase of wheat.