广西冬季2次农业致灾暴雨天气湿位涡分析

为了提高冬季暴雨预报准确率，及时为政府和人民提供准确的预报服务，减少农业生产的损失，利用自动站雨量资料以及NECP FNL分析资料分别对广西冬季两次农业致灾暴雨2016年1月27—28日和2013年12月13—16日进行实况分析、天气学分析和湿位涡诊断分析。结果表明：暴雨发生在MPV1正值区前侧的负值区或0值附近和MPV2负值中心南侧的低值区内。MPV1和MPV2对两类降水落区均具有一定的指示意义，但MPV1中心不能决定锋面暴雨降水落区却对降水具有潜势预报，MPV2对强降水的发生有一定的提前预报。MPV等值线密集区，冷暖空气交汇强烈有利于水汽辐合、垂直涡度发展易产生暴雨。

Two Winter Rainstorms Resulting in Agricultural Disaster in Guangxi: Moist Potential Vorticity Analysis

To improve the accuracy of winter rainstorm forecasting, timely provide weather service for the government and people, and reduce the loss of agricultural production, the authors did real-time analysis, synoptic analysis, diagnosis analysis of moist potential vorticity (MPV) of 2 winter rainstorms resulting in agricultural disasters occurred on January 27 to 28, 2016 and December 13 to 16, 2013 in Guangxi, by using the precipitation data from automatic weather stations and NECP FNL analysis data. The results showed that: the rainstorm occurred in negative or near the zero line before the positive side of MPV1 and the low zone of the south of MPV2 negative center; MPV1 and MPV2 had some indicating significance for the 2 types of precipitation areas, MPV1 center could not decide the frontal rainstorm precipitation fall area, but had the forecast potentiality for precipitation, MPV2 could forecast the occurrence of heavy rain in advance. MPV isoline-intensive area, the meet of cold and warm air strongly is beneficial to moisture convergence, and the development of vertical vorticity is easy to produce rainstorm.