Mapping forest dynamics under climate change: A matrix model |
| |
Authors: | Jingjing Liang Mo ZhouDave L. Verbyla Lianjun ZhangAnna L. Springsteen Thomas Malone |
| |
Affiliation: | a Division of Forestry and Natural Resources, West Virginia University, P.O. Box 6125, Morgantown, WV 26506-6125, USA b School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 757200, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA c Department of Forest and Natural Resources Management, SUNY-ESF, One Forestry Drive, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA d Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 3352 College Road, Fairbanks, AK 99709, USA |
| |
Abstract: | Global climate change may be affecting forests around the world. However, the impact of climate change on forest population dynamics, especially at the landscape or regional level, has hardly been addressed before. A new methodology was proposed to enable matrix transition models to account for climate impact on forest population dynamics. The first climate-sensitive matrix (CSMatrix) model was developed for the Alaska boreal forest based on observations from over 15 years of forest inventory. The spatially explicit model was used to map climate-induced forest population dynamics across the region. The model predicted that the basal area increment in the region under natural succession would be hindered by global warming, more so for dry upland areas than for moist wetlands. It was suggested that temperature-induced drought stress could more than offset a predicted increase of future precipitation in the region to lower overall forest productivity. At the same time, stand diversity would increase across the region through transient species redistribution. Accounting for climate conditions made the CSMatrix model more accurate than conventional matrix models. |
| |
Keywords: | Forest population dynamics Transition matrix model Empirical model Deterministic simulation Climate-induced change Climate scenario |
本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录! |
|