Drought and fire suppression lead to rapid forest composition change in a forest-prairie ecotone

Altered fire regimes and increased drought can lead to major vegetation changes, especially in ecotones. A decrease in fire can lead to woody species encroachment in prairies and increasing forest stand density. The threat of global climate change raises questions about potential increases in the length, severity, and incidence of droughts substantially altering species composition. Re-measured upland forests in south-central North America's midcontinent forest-prairie ecotone exhibited major changes in woody species composition and structure over fifty years and successional trajectories appeared to favor invasive Juniperus virginiana L. over the previous dominant Quercus species. The objective of this study was to determine whether climate and fire exclusion affected the recruitment history of dominant woody species in these upland forests located near the xeric western edge of the eastern deciduous forest biome of North America. We removed cores and cross-sections from 992 J. virginiana, Quercus marilandica Münchh. and Q. stellata Wangenh. trees from eleven forest stands located across central and northwest Oklahoma, and determined their ages using standard dendrochronological methods. Recruitment of all species increased following a severe mid-20th century drought, but a rapid increase in J. virginiana recruitment and decrease in Quercus recruitment appeared to be linked to a decrease in fire. Future fire regime changes and increased drought due to global climate change could lead to widespread shifts from Quercus- to Juniperus- dominated forests and cause substantial changes to ecosystem services.