我国21世纪森林资源发展趋势灰色预测 |
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引用本文: | 高兆蔚. 我国21世纪森林资源发展趋势灰色预测[J]. 林业资源管理, 2003, 0(2): 31-32,36 |
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作者姓名: | 高兆蔚 |
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作者单位: | 福建省林学会,福建,福州,350003 |
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摘 要: | 应用邓聚龙教授创立的灰色理论与方法,以我国森林资源连续清查统计数据为基础,建立灰色预测的GM(1 1)模型,对全国森林资源主要指标(1)森林覆盖率;2)有林地面积;3)活立木总蓄积量)的发展趋势进行预测。由于连续清查数据具有连续性、可比性特征,因此,预测结果经检验,精度较高,可以作为宏观决策的科学依据。
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关 键 词: | 森林资源 发展趋势 灰色预测模型 |
文章编号: | 1002-6622(2003)02-0031-02 |
Grey Model-based Forecast of China''s Forest Resources Development Trend in 21st Century |
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Abstract: | The paper applies the theory and methods of Grey System initiated by Prof Deng Julong to establish the Forecasting Model of GM(1,1) on the basis of continuous survey data of forest resources of China to forecast the whole country's forest resourcesThe main indexes used are: (1) forest coverage (2) forest land area (3)total stock of living standing treesBecause the forest inventory data is continuous and comparableBy checking the results against the successive inventory data of forest resources, the accuracy of the method is higher than that of any other forecasting method So, the forecasting results can be used for macro-decision |
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Keywords: | forest resources development trend grey forecast model |
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