我国21世纪森林资源发展趋势灰色预测

应用邓聚龙教授创立的灰色理论与方法,以我国森林资源连续清查统计数据为基础,建立灰色预测的GM(1 1)模型,对全国森林资源主要指标(1)森林覆盖率;2)有林地面积;3)活立木总蓄积量)的发展趋势进行预测。由于连续清查数据具有连续性、可比性特征,因此,预测结果经检验,精度较高,可以作为宏观决策的科学依据。

Grey Model-based Forecast of China's Forest Resources Development Trend in 21st Century

The paper applies the theory and methods of Grey System initiated by Prof Deng Julong to establish the Forecasting Model of GM(1,1) on the basis of continuous survey data of forest resources of China to forecast the whole country's forest resourcesThe main indexes used are: (1) forest coverage (2) forest land area (3)total stock of living standing treesBecause the forest inventory data is continuous and comparableBy checking the results against the successive inventory data of forest resources, the accuracy of the method is higher than that of any other forecasting method So, the forecasting results can be used for macro-decision