四川盆地玉米生育期气候资源及生产潜力的变化特征

基于四川盆地1961－2010年104个气象台站的气象资料和1981－2010年17个农气观测站的玉米生育期资料，利用农业生态区划模型(aez)计算了玉米生育期内生产潜力，并分析了农业气候资源及生产潜力的空间分布特征。结果表明：1961－2010年，四川盆地玉米生育期内平均≥10℃积温在盆地西部和南部呈增加的趋势，而在其他地区呈减小趋势，气候倾向率为-9.5~18.7℃·d·(10a)-1；平均日照时数在所有站点均呈现减少趋势，气候倾向率在-48.3～-4.3h·(10a)-1；平均降水量除川东北外均呈现下降的趋势，气候倾向率为-47.9～29.3mm·(10a)-1。近50年来，光合生产潜力和光温生产潜力均呈减少趋势，气候倾向率分别为-708～-64 kg·hm-2·(10a)-1和-404～-32kg·hm-2·(10a)-1；气候生产潜力在大部分站点呈减少的趋势，气候倾向率在-408～34kg·hm-2·(10a)-1。研究可对未来应对气候变化及玉米生产宏观决策提供重要的理论依据。

Climatic Resources and Productive Potential: Variation Characteristics During the Maize Growth Period in Sichuan Basin

Based on the observation data from 104 meteorology stations during 1961-2010 and phenology data of maize from 17 agrometeorology stations during 1981-2010 in Sichuan basin, the change of climatic resources and potential productive during the maize growth period were studied by using the Agro- Ecological Zone (AEZ) model. The results showed that the thermal time ≥10℃during the maize growth period increased in western basin and southern basin, but decreased in other areas from 1961 to 2010, the trend of which was -9.5~18.7℃·d·(10a)-1. The sunshine hours decreased by -48.3～-4.3h·(10a)-1 in Sichuan basin. The precipitation decreased in most regions of Sichuan basin, but for the northeastern basin appeared increasing tendency, the trend of which was -47.9～29.3mm·(10a)-1. The photosynthetic potential productivity of maize decreased by -708～-64 kg·hm-2·(10a)-1 and photo-temperature potential productivity decreased by -404～-32kg·hm-2·(10a)-1 from 1961 to 2010 in Sichuan basin. The climatic potential productivity of maize decreased in most regions of Sichuan basin, the trend of which was -408～34kg·hm-2·(10a)-1.This research can provide important theoretical support for developing the national response strategy on climate change, and overall policy decision of maize production.