“一带一路”背景下中国与中亚五国蔬菜出口贸易潜力研究

在分析中国与中亚五国蔬菜出口贸易现状的基础上,通过构建引力模型方法分析了中国与中亚五国蔬菜出口贸易的影响因素。结果表明:中亚五国的经济发展和人口规模因素对中国和中亚五国蔬菜出口贸易分别具有2.53%和0.04%的正向影响,位置因素对中国与中亚五国蔬菜贸易也产生正向影响,中国人口规模和经济发展、位置因素及需求结构的差异对中国与中亚五国蔬菜贸易分别产生0.41%、1.14%、0.21%和0.33%的负向影响。中国对中亚五国蔬菜出口贸易潜力值各不相同,分国家来看,贸易不足与贸易过量分化明显,哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦与中国贸易潜力值较小,发展潜力巨大。塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦存在贸易过剩情况,仍需再造潜力。

Study on the Potential of Vegetable Export Trade Between China and Five Central Asian Countries Under the Background of ‘Belt and Road’

Based on the analysis of the status quo of vegetable export trade between China and the five Central Asian countries,the influencing factors of vegetable export trade between China and the five Central Asian countries by constructing a gravity model were empirically analyzed. The results showed that the economic development and population size of the five Central Asian countries had a positive impact on the vegetable export trade of China and the five Central Asian countries by 2. 53% and 0. 04% respectively. The location factor also had positive effects on the vegetable trade between China and the five Central Asian countries.Towards the impact,Chinese population size and economic development,location factors and demand structure had a negative impact on the vegetable trade between China and the five Central Asian countries,which were0. 41%,1. 14%,0. 21% and 0. 33%,respectiely. China had different potentials for the export trade of vegetables from the five Central Asian countries. From the perspective of the country,the lack of trade and the excessive trade differentiation were obvious. The trade potential between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan and China was small and the development potential was huge. There was a trade surplus in Takstanstan,Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan,and there was still a need to rebuild potential.