未来气候变化情景下基于APSIM模型的黄土高原冬小麦适宜种植区域模拟

为探究气候变化对于黄土高原冬小麦适宜种植区域的影响,通过APSIM作物模型与降尺度气象数据集的耦合,模拟了RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下2020-2060、2061-2100年间黄土高原冬小麦的产量及其稳定性,并依据产量及其稳定性分析了黄土高原冬小麦适宜种植范围对于气候变化的响应。结果表明,在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下,当前黄土高原冬小麦种植范围内产量将显著提高。同时,除RCP 4.5情景的2020-2060年外,其余情景和时间段内黄土高原冬小麦适宜种植范围存在向北扩大趋势,且RCP 8.5情景下种植区域北扩的面积更大。在RCP 4.5情景下,2020-2060年间,小麦适宜种植面积占黄土高原总面积的46.8%,较1981-2010年平均值减少13 095 km~2;2061-2100年间,小麦适宜种植面积占黄土高原总面积的65.2%,较1981-2010年平均值增加101 763 km~2。在RCP 8.5情景下,2020-2060年间,小麦适宜种植面积占黄土高原总面积的56.4%,较1981-2010年平均值增加46 968 km~2;2061-2100年间,小麦适宜种植面积占黄土高原总面积的65.7%,较1981-2010年平均值增加107 671 km~2。

Simulation of Suitable Planting Area of Winter Wheat under Climate Change in the Loess Plateau Based on APSIM Model

In order to explore the impact of climate change on the suitable planting areas of winter wheat in the Loess Plateau,this study simulated the yield and the yield stability of winter wheat during 2020-2060 and 2061-2100 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 by coupling APSIM model with statistical down scaling of daily climate variables. The response of the suitable planting range of winter wheat in the Loess Plateau to climate change was predicted based on the yield and stability indices. The results showed that under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios,the yield of winter wheat in the Loess Plateau would be significantly increased. Except for 2020-2060 under RCP 4.5,the suitable planting area of winter wheat in Loess Plateau tends to expand northward in other scenarios and time periods,and the planting area under RCP 8.5 scenario is larger. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario,the suitable planting area accounted for 46.8% of the total area of the Loess Plateau from 2020 to 2060,13 095 km less than the average value from 1981-2010. During 2061-2100,the suitable planting area accounted for 65.2% of the total area of the Loess Plateau,with an increase of 101 763 km compared with the average value of 1981-2010. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario,the suitable planting area accounted for 56.4% of the total area of the Loess Plateau from 2020 to 2060,with an increase of 46 968 km compared with the average value of 1981-2010. From 2061 to 2100,the suitable planting area accounted for 65.7% of the total area of the Loess Plateau,with an increase of 107 671 km compared with the average value of 1981-2010.