江苏省“十二五”城镇居民冷链物流需求量预测——基于GM（1，1）灰色模型的测算

将肉类、水产品、速冻面食、水果、蔬菜、奶类、药品等需要冷藏运输的产品产出总量作为冷链物流运输总量的影响因子，选择2005～2009年的江苏省城镇居民冷链运输产品消费数据为样本，建立冷链物流需求量灰色预测模型GM（1，1），运用DPS7．05软件进行检验，对江苏省城镇居民“十二五”期间的冷链物流需求数量进行了预测。结果表明，2010～2015年，江苏省城镇居民冷链物流需求量分别为1151．5891、1185．1366、1219．6613、l255．1918、l291．7573、1329．3881t；2005～2010年江苏省城镇居民冷链物流每年的需求以3．9％的速度增长；2011～2015期间的增速有所回落，以2．9％的速度缓慢增长。

Prediction on Cold Chain Logistics Demand of Urban Residents in Jiangsu Province during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period

This paper takes the total yield of products that need refrigerated transport as the impact factors of transport aggregate of cold chain logistics,such as meat,aquatic products,quick-frozen noodle,fruits,vegetables,dairy,and medicine.Through selecting the consumption data of urban residents on transported products via cold chain in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2000 as sample,this paper establishes grey prediction model GM(1,1) of cold chain logistics demand and uses DPS7.05 software for test,to predict the cold chain logistics demand of urban residents in Jiangsu Province during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period.The results show that in the period 2010-2015,the cold chain logistics demand of urban residents in Jiangsu Province is 1 151.5891 t,1 185.136 6 t,1 219.661 3 t,1 255.191 8 t,1 291.757 3 t,1 329.388 1 t respectively;in the period 2005-2010,the cold chain logistics demand of urban residents in Jiangsu Province increases at annual growth rate of 3.9%;in the period 2011-2015,the growth rate declines to some extent,increasing slowly at rate of 2.9%.