| 基于灰色模型GM(1,1)的荆州市耕地动态变化分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐艳,周勇,湛蓝. 基于灰色模型GM(1,1)的荆州市耕地动态变化分析[J]. 湖北农业科学, 2007, 46(5): 713-715 |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐艳 周勇 湛蓝 |
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| 作者单位： | 华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院,武汉,430079;华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院,武汉,430079;华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院,武汉,430079 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金 , 国土资源部国土资源大调查土地监测调查工程项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 以湖北省荆州市1997～2004年耕地数据为基础和平台,运用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,探讨耕地数量动态变化,为可持续发展规划提供参考.结果表明,GM(1,1)模型对荆州市耕地资源数量的历史趋势拟合程度较高,预测结果符合荆州耕地数量变化规律.荆州市耕地面积在未来几年内仍将呈现出持续减少的趋势.因此保护耕地资源,合理利用和保护耕地都是刻不容缓的任务.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测 GM(1,1)模型 耕地动态变化 |
| 文章编号： | 0439-8114（2007）05-0713-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-06-18 |
Study on Dynamic Changes of the Farmland in Jingzhou City Based on the Gray Model GM(1,1) |
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| XU Yan,ZHOU Yong,ZHAN Lan. Study on Dynamic Changes of the Farmland in Jingzhou City Based on the Gray Model GM(1,1)[J]. Hubei Agricultural Sciences, 2007, 46(5): 713-715 |
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| Authors: | XU Yan ZHOU Yong ZHAN Lan |
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| Affiliation: | College of Urban and Environmental Science,Huazhong Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China |
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| Abstract: | With the farmland data of Jingzhou City in Hubei Province during 1997-2004 as base and platform,based on gray forecast model GM(1,1),the dynamic changes of farmland in the amount are explored to offer some reference for sustainable use planning of land.the results showed,model GM(1,1) fits a higher degree to the historical trends of farmland resources number in Jingzhou City,the forecast results also meet the amount changes of farmland.In the next few years,the area of farmland in jingzhou city will continue a decreasing trend.Therefore,protecting farmland resources,the rational use and protection of farmland are imperative tasks. |
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| Keywords: | gray forecast model GM(1 1) dynamic changes of farmland |
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