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Stochastic variation of system component variables in a network analysis
Authors:R.L. Bingner  T.C. Bridges  L.G. Wells  Y. Miyake  G.A. Duncan
Affiliation:1. Agricultural Engineering Department, University of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky 40546, USA;2. Utsunomiya Tobacco Experiment Station, Japan Tobacco & Salt Public Corporation, Oyama-shi, Tochigi-ken, 323, Japan
Abstract:A deterministic network simulation was reformulated to include the uncertainty of various parameters. Then, by the recording values obtained for each pathway or system in the network for a set of stochastic parameters and then choosing another set of stochastic parameters and recording the values obtained from that simulation, an average value and standard deviation for any system in the network can be determined. In the decision-making process of choosing from one system over another, the manager will have a better understanding of the complex interactions involved by knowing the effects that uncertainty in the system can cause.
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