新疆泽普县小麦白粉病流行的时间动态及预测模型

2012年-2019年对泽普县春季小麦白粉病田间发生情况进行了系统调查, 并对数据进行了分析和模型拟合, 明确了当地白粉病春季发生和流行的特点?其病害春季流行曲线为典型的单峰S形曲线, 符合Logistic或Gompertz模型?在此基础上, 通过Pearson相关系数法分析了多年来该地小麦不同生育期白粉病病情指数与66个主要气象因子之间的相关关系, 筛选出影响小麦白粉病发生流行的关键气象因子为1月下旬平均日照时间?2月下旬平均气温?1月上旬-3月上旬平均气温和10月下旬-4月中旬平均日照时间, 并采用多元回归分析法建立了基于关键气象因子的小麦扬花期?灌浆初期和灌浆中期的病害预测模型?此研究结果可为当地小麦白粉病的防控提供技术支撑?

Temporal dynamics and forecasting models of wheat powdery mildew in Zepu county of Xinjiang

The occurrence of wheat powdery mildew was systematically investigated in the field in Zepu county of Xinjiang during the spring of 2012-2019, and the epidemic characteristics of wheat powdery mildew were analyzed. The results showed the disease epidemic curves were the typical single-peak S-shaped curve, and fitted the Logistic or Gompertz model. Based on these results, the correlations between disease indexes in different wheat growth stages and 66 meteorological factors were analyzed using Pearson correlation coefficient method. The main meteorological factors influencing the occurrence and epidemics of wheat powdery mildew, including mean sunshine duration in late January, mean temperature in late February, mean temperature from early January to early March and mean sunshine duration from late October to mid-April, were determined. Then, the disease forecasting models at the flowering stage, early grain-filling stage or middle grain-filling stage were established using multiple regression analysis method. The results of this study will provide a technical support for the control of wheat powdery mildew in local regions.