基于GIS的乌-昌地区冬季热量资源时空变化

利用新疆乌鲁木齐市和昌吉州（乌-昌地区）16个气象站1961-2009年的逐日平均气温和逐年极端最低气温资料，使用Mann-Kendall法对入冬期、开春期、冬季持续日数、冬季负积温、最冷月平均气温和极端最低气温等热量要素变化趋势、突变特征进行检测分析，采用三维二次趋势面宏观地理因子模拟与反距离加权残差订正相结合的方法，建立各热量要素多年平均值及其突变前后变化量的空间分布式数学模型。在ArcGIS平台上，完成基于数字高程模型(DEM)数据的各热量要素及其突变前后变化量的100 m×100 m格点的精细化分布式模拟。结果表明：① 乌-昌地区入冬期由山区向平原推迟，开春期自平原向山区推迟，受其影响，冬季持续日数为“平原少，山区多；西部少，东部多”的分布格局。受冬季逆温的影响，负积温、最冷月（1月）平均气温和年极端最低气温等热量条件，从平原至中山带随海拔高度的上升而逐渐增多，在海拔2 100 m左右达最多后，随着海拔高度的继续上升，热量条件又逐渐减少。② 近49 a，乌-昌地区冬季热量资源呈较显著的增多趋势，并且入冬期于1994年发生了突变性的推迟，冬季持续日数于2004年发生了突变性的缩短，冬季负积温于1988年发生了突变性的减少，最冷月平均气温和极端最低气温分别于1973年和2004年发生了突变性的升高。突变前后各热量要素增加量表现为平原多于山区，城市密集区多于周边地区的分布格局。冬季热量资源增加，对乌-昌地区农牧业生产既有利，也会带来一些负面影响。因此，应采取趋利避害的管理和技术措施，以促进农牧业生产的持续稳定发展。

Spatiotemporal Variation of Winter Heat Resources in the Urumqi-Changji Region Based on GIS

Based on the data of average daily temperature and annual extreme minimum temperature at 16 meteorological stations in the Urumqi-Changji region during the period of 1961-2009,this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal change and sharp change of the first day of daily mean temperature stabilized at ≤ 0 ℃ and ≥ 0 ℃,duration of average daily temperature ≤0 ℃,negative accumulated temperature in winter,average monthly temperature in January and extreme minimum temperature using the methods of Mann-Kendall test,three-dimensional and quadratic trend surface simulation and inverse-distance square weighting residual error revising based on GIS.The main results are as the follows:(1) The winter heat resources was quite different from different regions in the Urumqi-Changji region.Generally,the first day of daily mean temperature stabilized at ≤0 ℃was earlier in mountains than that in plains and valleys,but the first day of daily mean temperature stabilized at ≥0 ℃ was later in mountains than that in plains and valleys.The continuous duration of average daily temperature ≤0 ℃ was longer in mountains than that in plains and valleys,and longer in the eastern part than that in the western part of the Urumqi-Changji region.Affected by winter inversion,the negative accumulated temperature in winter,average monthly temperature in January and extreme minimum temperature were increased from plains to mid-mountain zone about 2 100 m a.s.l.,and their maximums occurred at this altitude;(2) under global warming,winter heat resources was in a significant increase trend in the Urumqi-Changji region in recent 49 years,the first day of daily mean temperature stabilized at ≤0 ℃ was sharply postponed in 1994,the continuous duration of daily average temperature ≤0 ℃ was sharply shortened in 2004,negative accumulated temperature in winter was sharply decreased in 1988,and the average monthly temperature in January and the extreme minimum temperature were sharply increased in 1973 and 2004 respectively.The increase of various winter heat elements before and after their sharp change was higher in plains than that in mountains,and higher in city-dense regions than that in peripheral regions.Effects of winter heat resources increase may be advantageous to agriculture and livestock production in the Urumqi-Changji region.Therefore,some managing and technical measures should be taken so as to promote the sustainable development of agricultural and livestock production.