玛曲县土地利用变化分析与预测

基于玛曲县1975-2005年土地利用变更数据，从土地利用结构静态比较与土地利用程度动态变化两方面，定量分析玛曲县土地利用变化状况及主要驱动因子。研究表明:随着玛曲县经济发展、城市化程度的加快，林地、水域面积净减少,草地与建设用地面积净增加，土地利用结构信息熵值总体呈下降趋势，而优势度值总体呈上升趋势, 1975-1995年土地利用程度综合指数增加了0.076 5,而1995-2005年综合指数减少了0.709 2, 说明1975-1995年玛曲县土地利用程度处在区域土地利用的发展期,1995-2005年土地利用程度处在衰退期。根据土地利用熵值多年变化特征，利用GM(1,1)模型预测，2006-2015年土地利用程度处在调整期。

Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Change in Maqu County

Based on the detailed survey data of land use change during the period from 1975 to 2005,this paper analyzed quantitatively the static structure,dynamic change and main driving forces of land use change in Maqu County in southeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.The results show that the area of forests and waters in Maqu County was reduced with the economic development and accelerated urbanization during the period of 1975-2005,the area of grasslands and land for urban expansion,rural construction and for expansion and construction of industrial,mineral and residential areas was enlarged,the information entropy of land use structure was holistically decreased,and the dominance value was gradually expanded.The integrated index of land use degree was increased by 0.076 5 during the period of 1975-1995,but it was decreased by 0.709 2 during the period of 1995-2005,these reveal that the land use degree was in development during the period of 1975-1995 but in a declining trend during the period of 1995-2005.According to the land use change characteristics of entropy,the GM(1,1) model of grey theory was used to predict that the land use degree in Maqu County is in regulation during the period from 2006 to 2015.