甘肃省碳排放变化的因素分解及实证分析

研究我国能源消费碳排放变化特征以及主要影响因素的作用机理，有助于提高节能减排政策制定的科学性和可操作性。基于扩展的Kaya恒等式，建立因素分解模型，应用LMDI分解方法，综合分析经济产出规模、人口规模、产业结构、能源强度和能源结构等因素变化对甘肃省1995-2009年各部门终端能源碳排放变化的影响。结果表明：经济规模持续扩大是甘肃省碳排放快速增长的决定性因素。在各产业部门中，工业的快速发展是碳排放增长的主要拉动者，其次是交通邮电和仓储运输业、农业。人口规模扩大和产业结构调整是碳排放增长的次要拉动者。抑制碳排放增长的主要因素是能源强度下降和能源结构变化。最后，针对实证结果提出了相应的节能减排政策建议。

Factor Decomposition and Demonstration Analysis of Carbon Emission Variation in Gansu Province

It is important to investigate the characteristics and mechanisms of energy-related carbon emission and provide the meaningful reference for formulating the rational strategy of carbon emission reduction.The aim of decomposition analysis is to reveal the importance of distinct components or factors related to historical carbon emission data.A calculation method was used to compute the values of energy-related carbon emission and analyze the historical change of carbon emission of 6 sectors in Gansu Province during the period of 1995-2009.It was found that the total energy-related carbon emission was increased from 9.46×106 t in 1995 to 1.57×107 t in 2009,the average annual increase rate was 3.66%,and it was lower than the average in China and also the values of some provinces and big cities in east China,such as Beijing,Shanghai and Jiangsu.Extended Kaya identity was used to develop a factor decomposition mode and decompose the change of total energy-related carbon emission into the components of economic scale,population size,industrial structure,energy intensity and energy structure.Based on the time series decomposition of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI),the change of energy-related carbon emission during the period of 1995-2009 in Gansu Province was analyzed.Empirical results demonstrated that economic scale was dominant in the increase of carbon emission in Gansu Province,then the population sizes and industrial structure.Sectoral decomposition showed that the effect of economic growth on carbon emission increase was more significant than that of industry and traffic sectors.It was found that the main factors of restricting the increase of carbon emission are the decrease of energy intensity and the change of energy structure.Some policy suggestions were put forward for reducing carbon emission in Gansu Province in the future.