新疆阿勒泰地区西部蝗虫发生面积与大气环流特征量指数模型研究

通过对1991~2008年阿勒泰地区西部三县蝗虫发生面积与大气环流指数74项特征值的相关分析,分别筛选出与各县蝗虫发生面积显著相关的大气环流因子,采用逐步回归方法分别建立各县蝗虫发生面积的预测模型,并对模型进行了检验。利用模型对2009~2010年各县蝗虫发生面积进行延伸预测,并初步分析了大气环流特征量与蝗虫发生面积的关系。研究结果为蝗灾的预测预报提供理论依据。

Study on the Model between the Occurrenee Area of Locust and the Characteristic Quantity Indexes of Atmospheric Circulation in Western Aletai

By analyzing the correlation between the occurrence area of locust and 74 characteristic indexes of atmospheric circulation in western Aletai from 1991 to 2008,the atmospheric circulation factors which had the significant relationship with the occurrence area of locust in different counties were screened.The prediction models for the occurrence area of locust in different counties were established by stepwise regression method,and the models obtained were also tested.These models were subsequently utilized to carry out extended prediction on the occurrence area of locust in different counties of western Aletai from 2009 to 2010.Meanwhile,the relationship between the atmospheric circulation factors and the occurrence area of locust were analyzed.The results provided the theoretical basis for the prediction on locust plague.