| 四川盆地一次暴雨天气过程溃变分析及数值预报检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 邓兵奎. 四川盆地一次暴雨天气过程溃变分析及数值预报检验[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2011, 39(7): 4312-4314 |
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| 作者姓名： | 邓兵奎 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国民航飞行学院遂宁航空站,四川,遂宁,629001 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国民航飞行学院自然科学基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用溃变理论之V-3θ图对2009年7月14~17日出现在四川盆地西部的连续暴雨天气进行分析,并对此过程中ECWMF、T213数值预报产品的形势场和降水进行检验分析。结果表明,V-3θ图能对该次暴雨过程进行准确地描述;结合常规天气图、经验及数值预报产品可以确定暴雨的落区;ECWMF形势场的预报准确率明显高于T213;T213对于暴雨的预报准确性较低。
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| 关 键 词： | 溃变理论 V-3θ图 川西阻塞型 检验分析 综合预报 |
Analysis on the Theory of Blow-up and Verification on Numerical Prediction of Heavy Rain in Sichuan Basin |
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| DENG Bing-kui. Analysis on the Theory of Blow-up and Verification on Numerical Prediction of Heavy Rain in Sichuan Basin[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2011, 39(7): 4312-4314 |
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| Authors: | DENG Bing-kui |
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| Affiliation: | DENG Bing-kui(Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Suining Air Station,Suining,Sichuan 629001) |
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| Abstract: | By dint of V-3θ diagram from the Blown-up theory,one continuous heavy rain process in western Sichuan basin from July 14 to 17,2009 is analyzed in this paper.Situation field and precipitation of ECWMF and T213 are verified and discussed.Results show that V-3θ diagram can describe the heavy rain process accurately.Combining with additional conventional weather charts,experience and numerical forecast products,the heavy rain falling area is determined.The forecast accuracy of situation field of ECWMF is significantly higher than that of T213 and the forecast accuracy of T213 for heavy rain forecast is relatively low. |
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| Keywords: | Blown-up theory V-3θ diagram Western Sichuan obstructive model Interpretation and analysis Integrated Forecast |
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