基于全价值和全成本模型的农业水价方案及其可行性分析

针对现行农业水价标准过低的问题，选取粮食主产区——黑龙江省为研究区域，从农业用水全价值和全成本出发，利用能值理论分析确定农业用水价值，采用全成本水价法确定用水成本，结合现行水价制定不同情境下农业水资源定价方案；运用双对数模型建立农业用水需求价格函数，揭示水价提升带来的研究区域节水潜力，结合指数分析法确定农户可承受能力，从而判断所制定水价方案的可行性。结果表明：2020年，农业水资源全价值为0.594元/m3，地表水与地下水全成本分别为0.180元/m3和0.355元/m3；针对设计的3种阶梯水价调整方案，利用2005、2010、2015、2020年进行实证分析，过渡期和长期水价方案平均年节水量分别可达2.72×109、4.45×109m3，平均年节水潜力分别为12.74%、19.48%，且一阶水价均在农户可承受能力范围，确定为可行方案。本文为研究区农业水价综合改革提供了支持，可结合实际情况逐步提高农业水价到合理水平。

Agricultural Water Pricing Programs and Feasibility Analysis Based on Full-value and Full-cost Model

Aiming at the problem of low agricultural water price, Heilongjiang Province, the main grain producing area, was selected as the study area. Starting from the full-value and full-cost of agricultural water, the value of agricultural water use was analyzed by using the emergy theory, the cost of water use was determined by using the full-cost water pricing method, and the pricing of agricultural water resources was formulated in different situations by combining with the current price of water. A double logarithmic model was used to establish the price function of agricultural water demand, reveal the potential for water saving in the study area brought about by the increase in water price, and determine the affordability of farmers by combining with the index analysis method, so as to judge the feasibility of the water pricing scheme formulated. The results showed that in 2020, the full-value of agricultural water resources was 0.594 yuan/m3, and the full-costs of surface water and groundwater were 0.180 yuan/m3 and 0.355 yuan/m3, respectively; for the three designed ladder water price adjustment schemes, empirical analyses were carried out by using the years of 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, and in the case of the transition period and the long-term water price scheme, the average annual water savings respectively can be up to 2.72×109m3 and 4.45×109m3, the average annual water saving potential was 12.74% and 19.48%, and the first-order water price was in the range of the affordability of farmers, which was determined as a feasible program. The research result can provide support for the comprehensive reform of agricultural water price in the study area, which can be combined with the actual situation to gradually increase the agricultural water price to a reasonable level.