政策性农业保险、农户分化对粮食单产的影响——以江西为例

政策性农业保险对农户粮食生产行为和国家粮食安全的影响受到广泛关注。本文基于江西省乡村振兴“双百双千”农户调研数据，采用两步聚类法优化了农户分化类型，运用最小二乘法和调节效应模型分析政策性农业保险对水稻单产的影响及内在机理，探讨政策性农业保险促进水稻单产的边界条件。结果表明，农户响应购买政策性农业保险比例仅为47.4%，传统农户和专业农户购买政策性农业保险比例偏低。购买政策性农业保险农户的家庭水稻单产为7.087 t/hm2，高于未购买政策性农业保险农户。农户购买政策性农业保险显著提升了水稻单产，这一结果通过了内生性和稳健性检验。机制分析表明，农户购买政策性农业保险可以通过提高水稻种植面积和种植比例实现集约化生产、采纳农业绿色生产技术改善土壤质量和采纳新品种提升水稻抗病害性能的渠道来提高水稻单产。进一步分析发现，新型经营主体农户、粮食主产县、双季稻种植均显著强化了政策性农业保险的水稻增产作用。因此，在粮食安全和农民增收的双重目标下，建议要加快政策性农业保险发展，降低农地流转、农业绿色生产技术和水稻新品种的获取成本，加大对从事粮食生产新型经营主体、粮食主产县和双季稻种植区域的政策性农业保险补贴力度。

The influence of policy-based agricultural insurance and farmer differentiation on grain yield: Evidence from Jiangxi Province

The influences of policy-based agricultural insurance on farmers’ food production behaviors and national food security have been widely concerned. Based on a rural household survey data of “double hundred and double thousand” in Rural Vitalization of Jiangxi Province, this paper applied the two-step clustering method to optimize farmers’ differentiation types, analyzed the influences and internal mechanism of policy-based agricultural insurance on rice yield by the Least Square method, and discussed the Moderating effect and the boundary conditions of policy-based agricultural insurance. Results show that the proportion of farmers responding to purchasing policy-based agricultural insurance is only 47.4%, while the proportion of traditional farmers and specialized farmers purchasing policy-based agricultural insurance is low. The rice yield of farmers who purchase policy-based agricultural insurance reaches 7.087 t/hm2, surpassing that of farmers who do not avail themselves of such insurance. The purchase of policy-based agricultural insurance by farmers has significantly enhanced the rice yield, which had been validated through endogenous and robustness tests. The mechanism analysis reveals that the purchase of policy-based agricultural insurance can enhance rice yield through expanding the planting area and proportion of rice to achieve intensive production, adopting agricultural green production technology to improve soil quality and introducing new varieties to enhance rice disease resistance. Further analysis shows that farmers of new agricultural business entities, main grain producing counties and double-cropping rice planting significantly strengthen the rice production effect of policy-based agricultural insurance. Therefore, under the dual goals of grain security and increasing farmers’ income, this paper suggests: accelerating the development of policy-based agricultural insurance, reducing agricultural land circulation, agricultural green production technology and new rice varieties acquisition cost, and increasing the intensity of policy-based agricultural insurance subsidies for new agricultural business entities in grain production, major grain producing counties, and double-cropping rice cultivations.