中国禽群高致病性禽流感发生状况及其风险预测

本研究旨在探讨中国高致病性禽流感的发生状况,并对其风险态势进行尝试性的预测。作者在流行病学数据挖掘和模型分析基础上,基于OIE风险评估理论,结合昆虫生态学格局分析和Bernoulli统计模型,对中国2004年以来高致病性禽流感的发生状况及其风险态势进行了分析和预测。结果显示:(1)中国家禽养殖数量大,养殖模式复杂,种类繁多,养殖的区域特征显著,给中国HPAI的防控带来了挑战;(2)中国自2004年发生HPAI以来,疫情发生的时-空连续性强,突出表现在疫情发生的季节、区域和宿主特征明显,提示科学的区域化管理和协作的重要性;(3)在发展态势上,由于区域周边疫情特点和中国禽群养殖及风险管理状况,使得中国局部地区禽群在相当长的一段时间内存在较大的暴露和感染的风险;(4)风险预测上,利用Bernoulli统计模型和信息技术,预测2008年中国禽群在90%的置信区间内最有可能会有2～10起HPAI疫情发生,发生6起左右的高致病性禽流感疫情可能性较大,其中在中国东南部分地区局部区域禽群具有较高的疫情暴露和发生风险。本研究表明中国禽群持续发生HPAI疫情的可能性大,开展基于风险的区划和管理对疫情发生和控制具有积极意义。

Prediction on the Status of HPAI and Its Risk Trend in China

The objective of this study was to explore the status of poultry populations' highly pathogenic avian influenza and its range developing risk.Integrated with the data mining techniques and theory of risk assessment of OIE (Organisation Mondiale de la Sante Animale),combined with the application of the methods of ecological pattern analysis and Bernoulli statistical model,the risk status of highly pathogenic avian influenza and its range expansion trend were derived since its first reported in 2004 in China.Results of analysis showed: (1)China has a very big host populations of poultry in certain given geographical regions,characterized by its complex raising & feeding pattern & mode,and diversified varieties,which make the consecutive occurrences of HPAI possible,and thereof entailed the bigger challenges for HPAI risk control.(2) The occurrences of HPAI in China featured by its significant tempo-spatial patterns,mainly characterized by its seasonal-regional and specified host population occurrences,which indicted the importance of scientifically regional risk management and regional cooperation.(3)In risk developing trend,due to the regional-national and international occurrences of HPAI,and existence of larger exposure host populations,make the further risk of HPAI infection and expansion possible in given region.(4)In risk predictions,Bernoulli statistical model integrated with geographical informational techniques were applied,result showed that there may be 2-10 times of HPAI occurrences with 90% confidence interval (CI) in 2008,6 times of HPAI occurrences were most likely,and poultry populations in southern part of China may be exposed at possible risk.There exist a highly likelihood for the re-occurrences of HPAI among poultry populations in China in future.