基于不同情景的嘉兴市生态系统服务价值分析

以2000、2010年两期土地利用数据为基础，结合CLUE\|S模型与Markov模型预测了2020年嘉兴市3种不同情景（自然增长情景、生态保护情景和土地优化情景）下的土地利用变化，并据此分析了3种情景下生态服务价值的变化情况。结果表明，至2020年，嘉兴市生态系统服务价值从高到低依次为生态保护情景>土地优化情景>自然增长情景。相对2010年，自然增长情景损失值最高，为136亿元，土地优化情景损失值为087亿元，而生态保护情景损失值仅为027亿元，表明通过采取降低耕地向建设用地的转化速率、增加林地面积的生态保护措施，可以大大提高嘉兴市的生态服务功能。因此，建议嘉兴市政府在增加森林覆盖面积的同时，还要严控城市无序扩张。

Analysis on dynamic changes of ecosystem services value in Jiaxing City under different scenarios

Based on the land use/cover data in 2000 and 2010， CLUE\|S model and Markov model were applied together to simulate and predict the land use change in Jiaxing City in 2020 under natural growth scenario， ecological protection scenario and land optimization scenario， respectively. The changes of ecosystem services value under the three scenarios were calculated and analyzed. The results showed that as far as 2020， the descending ranking of ecosystem services value was as follows: ecological protection scenario>land optimization scenario>natural growth scenario. Compared with 2010， the loss of ecosystem service value under natural growth scenario was the highest （136 million yuan）， and it was the lowest under ecological protection scenario （27 million yuan）. Thus， it could greatly improve the ecological services function of Jiaxing City by reducing the transformation rate of cultivated land to construction land and increasing the forest area. Therefore， it is recommended that the government should enforce stringent controls over urban sprawl and increase the forest coverage area.