用分类法预测陕南晚熟水稻纹枯病

目的]用分类法预测陕南晚熟水稻纹枯病,为水稻纹枯病的预测防治提供方法依据。方法]用分类法量化地分析了2000～2007年陕南晚熟水稻D10后期水稻纹枯病发生程度与孕穗期、抽穗期气温、降雨量的关系。结果]收获前D10平均病指与8月上旬平均气温及7月中旬～8月上旬降雨量有显著的多元线性回归关系。水稻纹枯病发生高峰期在7月中旬～8月中旬。结论]水稻纹枯病是同质性病害,后期水稻纹枯病发生程度可以代表水稻纹枯病发生程度。用分类法建立的回归方程不仅能准确预测水稻纹枯病发生程度,而且推出水稻纹枯病属喜高温高湿的农田冠层小气侯性病害。因此,在节水灌溉降低发病部位抑病的基础上,培育健壮合理群体降湿抑病尤为重要。同时不可忽视前期预测挑治,中期普防。

Prediction of Late-maturing Rice Sheath Blight in Southern Shaanxi by Classification Method

Objective] The research aimed to predict the late-maturing Rice Sheath Blight in southern Shaanxi by classification method,for providing method and basis for prevention and prediction of Rice Sheath Blight.Method] The relationship between the temperature or rainfall at booting and heading stage and the degree of later period Rice Sheath Blight of late-maturing D10 in southern Shaanxi in 2000-2007 by classification method was analyzed.Result] There was multi-dimensional linear regression relations between the average sickness refers of D10 before harvest and the average temperature in early August and the rainfall from mid-July to beginning of August.The peak of late-maturing Rice Sheath Blight in southern Shaanxi was from mid-July to mid-August.Conclusion] Rice Sheath Blight was the homogeneous plant disease,the degree of later period Rice Sheath Blight expressed the degree of Rice Sheath Blight.The regression equation which established with the classification method not only could predict accurately the degree of Rice Sheath Blight,but also could fetch the farmland crown level small climate of high temperature and high humidity.So under the foundation of saving water irrigation which reduced the morbidity spot and damped plant disease,the cultivating health and reasonable community were especially important to reduce the humidity and to control plant disease.Meanwhile,the earlier period prediction and the intermediate stage universal prevention were also important.