气候变化背景下内蒙古翁牛特旗玉米气候适宜度变化

揭示气候变化对玉米不同生长阶段的影响，对合理改善玉米种植布局、培育玉米新品种、保证玉米高产稳产具有重要意义。利用内蒙古赤峰市翁牛特旗1981—2018年逐日气象资料，结合玉米生长气候适宜度指标，通过翁牛特旗玉米气候适宜度模型，计算分析了玉米在全生育期及主要生育阶段内的光照、温度、降水和综合气候适宜度及其变化特征。结果表明，1981—2018年，玉米全生育期内光照、温度和降水适宜度分别为0.72、0.94和0.60，综合气候适宜度为0.74，气候条件较适宜玉米种植。在气候变化背景下，玉米在出苗至拔节期，温度适宜度显著下降；在拔节至开花期，光照适宜度显著上升；在开花至乳熟期，光照适宜度显著上升，降水适宜度、综合气候适宜度显著下降。总体上翁牛特旗玉米的光照、温度适宜度较高且比较稳定；降水适宜度较低且波动较大，是影响研究区玉米生长发育的主要限制因子。

Climate Suitability Variation of Maize Under Climate Change in Wengniute of Inner Mongolia

To reveal the effects of climate change on different growth stages of maize is of great significance to improving maize planting layout, breeding new maize varieties and ensuring high and stable yield of maize. Based on the daily meteorological data from 1981 to 2018 in Wengniute Banner of Chifeng City in Inner Mongolia, and combined with the climate suitability index of maize growth, the climate suitability model of maize in Wengniute Banner was used to calculate and analyze the suitability of light, temperature, precipitation and comprehensive climate of maize and their variation characteristics during the whole growth period and at main growth stages. The results showed that during the whole growth period of maize from 1981 to 2018, the suitability of light, temperature and precipitation was 0.72, 0.94 and 0.60 respectively, and the comprehensive climate suitability was 0.74, indicating that the climatic conditions were relatively suitable for maize planting. Under the background of climate change, temperature suitability of maize decreased significantly from seedling emergence to jointing. Light suitability increased significantly from jointing to flowering. From flowering to milky ripeness stage, light suitability increased significantly, precipitation suitability and comprehensive climate suitability decreased significantly. On the whole, the suitability of light and temperature of maize in Wengniute Banner is high and relatively stable, while the low and unstable precipitation suitability is the main limiting factor affecting maize growth and development in the study area.