基于LMDI分解模型的中国粮食主产区增产格局及贡献因素研究

深入分析中国13个粮食主产省份的增产空间格局、作物结构、贡献因素，为维系其增长态势、优化粮食生产布局、调整种植结构，实现主产区粮食稳步增产提供决策依据。运用LMDI分解模型和GIS空间分析法，将主产区粮食总产量分解为播种面积和作物单产2种因素，分析其增产格局及增产贡献因素。从主产区粮食增产量的空间分布来看：北方主产区优于南方主产区，粮食增产重心呈现出较为明显的北移趋势；增产结构上看，玉米为主要贡献品种，其次为小麦，稻谷贡献率最低；主产区粮食增产贡献因素来看，单产的贡献率高于播面的贡献率，且空间差异明显。分作物看稻谷和玉米的播种面积效应为正值，玉米大于稻谷，小麦的播种面积效应产生负向影响；3种作物的单产效应均为正值，小麦的单产效应最为显著，小麦>稻谷>玉米。面积增加和单产提高都对主产区粮食产量增加产生了积极的贡献。对于主要依靠播面增加来提高产量的地区，应调整种植结构，合理轮作，挖掘优势作物，增加农业技术推广，提高土地产出；对于单产贡献显著的地区，要发展特色产业优势区，形成集群化发展，在生产、流通、销售环节提供全方位的服务，防止增产不增收的现象发生。

The Yield Increase Pattern and Contributing Factors of Main Grain Producing Areas in China Based on LMDI Model

This research analyzed the spatial pattern, crop structure and contributing factors of yield increase in 13 major grain producing provinces in China, so as to provide a decision-making basis for maintaining the growth trend, optimizing grain production layout, adjusting planting structure and realizing steady grain yield increase in China’s major grain producing areas. Using LMDI model and GIS spatial analysis method, the total grain yield in the main producing areas was divided into two factors: sowing area and crop yield per unit area, and the yield increase pattern and contributing factors were analyzed. From the spatial distribution of grain yield increase in the main producing areas: the main producing areas in north China are better than those in the south, and the center of gravity of grain yield increase shows an obvious northward trend. In terms of yield increase structure, maize is the main contributing variety, followed by wheat, and the contribution rate of rice is the lowest. From the contributing factors of grain yield increase in main producing areas, the contribution rate of per unit area yield is higher than that of sowing area, and the spatial difference is obvious. In terms of crops, the sowing area effect of rice and maize is positive, the effect of maize is greater than that of rice, and the sowing area effect of wheat has a negative impact. The per unit area yield effect of the three crops is positive, and that of wheat is the most significant, while the order is wheat > rice >maize. The increase of both the planting area and the per unit area yield contribute positively to the increase of grain yield in the main producing areas. For areas that mainly rely on the increase of sowing area to raise the yield, we should adjust the planting structure, carry out reasonably rotation, excavate advantageous crops, increase the popularization of agricultural technology and improve the land output. For areas with significant contribution from per unit area yield, it is necessary to develop characteristic industrial advantage areas, form cluster development, provide all-round services in production, circulation and sales, and prevent the phenomenon of higher production not accompanied by higher income.