赤松宜林地昆嵛山腮扁叶蜂虫基指数的评估

目的 通过构建昆嵛山腮扁叶蜂虫基指数——立地因子评价体系，定量评估赤松宜林地潜在遭受昆嵛山腮扁叶蜂危害程度的等级，进而避免在严重为害的宜林地中种植赤松。 方法 基于昆嵛山腮扁叶蜂虫基指数曲线群图，查找每块样地的虫基指数。通过相关性分析筛选关键立地因子，运用数量化理论Ⅰ分别建立昆嵛山腮扁叶蜂虫基指数与全部立地因子和关键立地因子的关系方程，并对方程模型做出评价。 结果 （1）相关性分析表明，海拔、坡度、腐殖质层厚度和土壤质地对虫基指数具有极显著的影响（P < 0.01），且对其贡献力呈依次增大的趋势。（2）全部立地因子和关键立地因子与虫基指数的多元线性回归模型在统计学上均达到极显著水平（P < 0.01），决定系数（R2）分别为0.823和0.730，说明模型的拟合效果较好，且可用4个关键立地因子代替全部立地因子作为方程自变量。（3）对由关键立地因子所建模型推算出的虫基指数进行评价，结果表明平均预估误差（MPE）是5.87%，即预估精度为94.13%，且TRE值均趋近于0，模型较可靠。 结论 昆嵛山腮扁叶蜂虫基指数——立地因子评价体系可以定量评估赤松宜林地潜在遭受昆嵛山腮扁叶蜂为害的程度，能够为适地适树地栽植赤松林以及预防昆嵛山腮扁叶蜂提供理论基础。

Evaluate the Pest Based Index of Cephalcia kunyushanica

Objective To quantitatively evaluate the degree of potential damage of Cephalcia kunyushanica Xiao and construct a evaluation system of pest based index (PBI) - site factors of C. kunyushanica. Method The pest based index of each sample plot was found based on the PBI curve group graph of C. kunyushanica. The key site factors were screened through correlation analysis, and the equations of PBI-all site factors and PBI-key site factors of C. kunyushanica were established respectively by using the theory of quantification Ⅰ. Result (1) Correlation analysis showed that the elevation, gradient, humus depth and soil texture had extremely significant influence on pest based index (P < 0.01), and their contributions to PBI increased in turn. (2) The multiple linear regression model of all site factors, key site factors and pest based index reached the extremely significant level statistically (P < 0.01). The determination coefficient (R2) was 0.823 and 0.730, respectively, indicating that the model had a good fitting effect, and 4 key site factors could be used to replace all site factors as the independent variables of the equation. (3) The pest basis index calculated by the model of key site factor was evaluated, and the result showed that the average estimation error (MPE) was 5.87%, indicating that the estimation accuracy could reach 94.13%. TRE values were all close to 0, indicating that the model is reliable. Conclusion Pest based index - site factors evaluation system can quantitatively evaluate the potential infection of C. kunyushanica, which can provide theoretical basis for optimum planting and prevention of C. kunyushanica.