淮河生态经济带安徽段粮食生产时空演化及其驱动力分析

淮河流域是我国三大商品粮生产基地之一,优化其粮食生产格局对于保障中国粮食安全具有重要意义。基于比较优势理论测度淮河生态经济带安徽段50个区县2006—2020年的粮食生产优势,并采用ESDA模型、地理探测器模型分析其时空分异及其影响因素。研究表明:水稻的优势区域多数为规模主导型,小麦、玉米的生产区域普遍具有综合比较优势且分布逐渐向淮河以北地区聚集,种植面积的减少使豆类部分优势区域变为劣势区域;主要粮食作物的生产比较优势具有较强的空间自相关性,其中水稻、小麦比较优势指数的空间聚集情况较为稳定,玉米的高值聚集区分布由"双核心"变为"带状",而豆类恰好相反,两种作物呈"竞争"态势。此外,早期区域粮食生产优势与灌溉水平高度相关;年降水量与水资源总量解释力逐年增强且成为决定性因素,表明粮食生产布局与自然资源条件的匹配程度有所提高;农民可支配收入解释力处于低位状态且逐年减弱,反映粮食生产的优势区域农户收入反而较低,粮食生产与农民可支配收入"脱钩"程度加剧。

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Grain Production in the Anhui Section of the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt and Its Driving Forces

Optimizing grain production pattern in the Huaihe River Basin, one of the three major commodity grain production bases in China, is of utmost significance for ensuring China’s grain security. Based on the comparative advantage theory, this paper measures the advantages of grain production in 50 districts and counties in Anhui section of the Huaihe River ecological economic belt from 2006 to 2020, and analyzes the spatial and temporal differentiation as well as its influencing factors with ESDA model and Geodetector. The results show that: the advantageous areas of rice are mostly scale-oriented. The production areas of wheat and corn generally have comprehensively comparative advantages and are gradually distributed to the north of Huaihe River. Some advantageous areas of beans have become disadvantageous ones due to the reduction of planting area. The spatial aggregation of the comparative advantage index of rice and wheat is relatively stable; the distribution of high-value aggregation areas of maize has changed from "double core" to "belt" shape, while that of its rival, legume, is just the opposite. The regional advantages of grain production in early stage are greatly affected by irrigation. The influence of annual precipitation and total water resources has increased year by year, indicating that the matching between grain production layout and natural resource conditions has improved. The annually decreasing influence of disposable income means that the income of farmers in the advantageous areas of grain production is low, and the degree of "decoupling" between grain production and farmers’ disposable income is intensified.