长三角地区县域城乡融合发展水平测度及影响因素分析

县域城乡融合是中国城乡关系演进新的阶段,是实现以县域为重要载体的城镇化与乡村振兴协同发展的关键。测度2010—2021年长三角地区152个县级行政单元的城乡融合发展水平,对时空演变特征与影响因素进行分析。研究表明:长三角地区县域城乡融合发展水平呈现波动上升趋势,并表现出生态融合>人口融合>空间融合>经济融合>社会融合的维度差异。空间分布上呈现出“东部为中心、向四周辐射”的"核心—边缘"结构特征。动态演变进程中呈现出低水平融合区逐渐向中等水平融合区的转变趋势。影响因素分析表明,财政自给率显著地促进县域城乡融合发展水平的提升,产业结构失衡、金融借贷比则与其呈显著的负相关关系,且各影响因素在不同县级行政单元人口规模和经济区位中均存在异质性。

Measurement of the Level of Urban-Rural Integrated Development in Counties of the Yangtze River Delta and Influencing Factors Analysis

Urban-rural integration at the county level represents a new stage in the evolution of urban-rural relations in China, and it is the key to realizing the coordinated development of urbanization and rural revitalization with counties as an important carrier. This study measures the urban-rural integrated development level of 152 county-level administrative units in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2021, and analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and the influencing factors. The results show that the level of urban-rural integrated development at the county level in the Yangtze River Delta shows a fluctuating upward trend, and shows the dimensional difference, namely ecological integration> population integration> spatial integration> economic integration > social integration. In terms of spatial distribution, it shows the characteristics of "core-periphery" structure with "east as the center radiating to the periphery". In the process of dynamic evolution, there is a trend of gradual transition from low-level fusion area to medium-level fusion area. The analysis of influencing factors shows that the fiscal self-sufficiency rate significantly promotes the development level of urban-rural integration at the county level, while the industrial structure imbalance and the financial loan ratio have a significant negative correlation with it, and the influencing factors are heterogeneous according to the population size and economic location of different county-level administrative units.