明清时期关中地区干旱灾害时空特征及其对小冰期气候变化响应研究

整理明清时期（1368-1911）关中地区干旱灾害史料，利用数理统计方法和Origin 8.5，Matlab等软件，探讨明清时期关中地区干旱灾害的时空变化特征及其对小冰期气候变化的响应。结果显示:明清时期关中地区有193年发生干旱灾害，共计274次，平均每2年发生1次，轻度旱灾、中度旱灾、重度旱灾、特大旱灾分别发生了92次、124次、36次和22次；季节变化上，干旱灾害存在单季、两季、三季和四季连旱，主要以单季旱和两季连旱为主。年际变化上，干旱灾害可分为6个阶段，第一阶段（1368-1411年）、第三阶段（1552-1611年）和第五阶段（1652-1771年）属干旱灾害少发期，第二阶段（1412-1551年）、第四阶段（1612-1651年）和第六阶段（1772-1911年）属干旱灾害多发期。空间变化上，西安、咸阳、渭南、宝鸡和铜川分别发生了215次、189次、183次、172次和175次，以西安地区发生的频次最高。周期变化上，干旱灾害有8 a，23 a，44 a变化周期，与太阳黑子活动11 a周期及其倍数相对应。明清时期关中地区干旱灾害与小冰期内气候冷暖次级波动有较好的对应关系，偏冷期干旱灾害发生频次高，偏暖期干旱灾害发生频次低。该研究为探索未来气候变化规律提供新的认知视角，为人类社会响应未来气候变化提供有益的历史依据。

Study on Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Drought Disaster and Its Response to Climate Change in Little Ice Age in Guanzhong Region in the Ming and Qing Dynasties

We collected historical data of drought disasters in Guanzhong area in the Ming and Qing Dynasties to analyze the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of drought disasters in Guanzhong area in the Ming and Qing Dynasties and its response to the Little Ice Age by using the method of mathematical statistics, Origin 8.5 and Matlab software. The results showed that drought disasters occurred a total of 274 times for 193 years in Ming and Qing Dynasties in Guanzhong area, the drought occurred once every two years; mild drought, moderate drought, severe drought and heavy drought happened for 92 times, 124 times, 36 times, 22 times, respectively; in terms of seasonal changes, the drought disasters in Guanzhong area in the Ming and Qing Dynasties had single season, two-seasons, three-season and four-season droughts while the single season and two season droughts mainly occurred; in terms of annual changes, the drought disasters could be divided into six stages, the first stage (years of 1368-1411), the third stage (years of 1552-1611) and the fifth stage (years of 1652-1771) were the periods with rare drought disasters, while the second stage (years of 1412-1551), fourth (years of 1612-1651) and the sixth stage (years of 1772-1911) were the periods with multiple drought disasters; in terms of spatial changes, the droughts occurred for 215 times, 189 times, 183 times, 172 times and 175 times in Xi’an, Xianyang, Weinan, Baoji and Tongchuan, respectively, while the disasters occurred most frequently in Xi’an in the Ming and Qing Dynasties; in terms of periodic changes, drought disasters were 8-year, 23-year and 44-year periods in Guanzhong area in the Ming and Qing Dynasties, which was mostly consistent with 11-year period and its times of the sunspot activity. There was a good correspondence between the drought disasters and the secondary fluctuations of the cold and warm in the Little Ice Age of Guanzhong area in the Ming and Qing Dynasties. The frequency of drought disasters in the cold period was high while the frequency of drought disasters in the warm period was low. This research could provide the new cognitive perspective for exploring the law of future climate change, and also provide the useful historical basis for human society to respond to future climate change.