山西省作物生产蓝绿水足迹核算及影响因素分析

基于水足迹理论，对山西省2005—2014年11个市主要粮食作物生产蓝水和绿水足迹进行了量化，并结合农业与气候数据分析了其时空变异及气候影响因素。结果表明:近10年山西省各地区粮食作物生产水足迹呈下降趋势，且蓝水足迹下降趋势较绿水足迹显著；全省综合作物生产蓝水足迹从1.11降到0.64 m³/kg。不同作物间生产水足迹差异显著，大豆生产蓝绿水足迹均最高，分别为2.74，2.11 m³/kg；前者是玉米生产蓝水足迹的6.5倍，后者是小麦生产绿水足迹的5.1倍。从蓝绿水构成来看，山西省绿水比例南多北少；其多年均值为46%，具备提高绿水资源利用效率的空间。不同区域间作物生产蓝绿水足迹均表现出由北向南波动中下降的趋势，大同和吕梁地区水足迹较高。通径分析结果显示气候因子中的日照、气温和降雨是影响作物生产水足迹的主要影响因素。在山西省范围内，气候条件的时空差异是造成作物生产水足迹时空变异的主要原因，农业生产资料投入的影响较小。

Estimate of Blue and Green Water Footprint of Crop Production and Analysis of Its Influencing Factors in Shanxi Province

The green and blue water footprint (WFP) of major grain crops was quantified in 11 cities of Shanxi Province in the period 2005—2014 based on the theory of WFP. The spatiotemporal variations and influencing factors of the WFP were analyzed using meteorological and agricultural data. The results showed that the WFP of crop production declined in different regions of Shanxi Province over the past decade. The blue WFP decreased significantly compared with green WFP. The blue WFP of integrated crop production in Shanxi decreased from 1.11 m³/kg in 2005 to 0.64 m³/kg in 2014. There were the marked differences in the WFP among various crops, and the blue and green WFP of soybean ranked the highest, which were 2.74 m³/kg and 2.11 m³/kg, respectively. The former was 6.5 times of the blue WFP of corn, and the latter was 5.1 times of the green WFP of wheat. From the perspective of WFP composition, the proportion of green WFP in the south of Shanxi Province was higher than that in the north. The average proportion of green WFP in the total water consumption was 46%, showing great potential for improving green water use efficiency in this province. Generally, both the blue and green WFP of crops fluctuated with the downward trend from north to south in all 11 cities. Higher levels of WFP were observed in the Datong City and Lvliang. Path analysis showed that climate factors such as sunshine, temperature, and rainfall were the top three factors influencing the WFP of crops. In Shanxi Province, the spatiotemporal variations in the WFP of crop production were due to the spatiotemporal differences in climate conditions, while the input of agricultural production had less influence.