乌鲁木齐市土地利用结构与碳排放的关联测度研究

目的]对乌鲁木齐市的土地利用结构与碳排放量的关系进行测度,分析一定时间范围内二者的关联度及其变化特征,从而探索土地利用碳减排途径,为乌鲁木齐市合理利用土地与生态、经济、社会效应的同步提升提供参考。方法]基于乌鲁木齐市2001—2015年的土地利用变更数据和能源消耗数据,分别计算出碳排放总量、碳排放强度和人均碳排放量,并构建灰色关联度模型,测算乌鲁木齐市土地利用结构与碳排放总量、碳排放强度、人均碳排放量的关联系数和关联度。结果]2001—2015年乌鲁木齐市碳排放量由8.31×10~6 t增加到2.10×10~7 t,增加了近2.6倍;土地利用结构与碳排放总量、碳排放强度和人均碳排放量三者关联度最高的分别是交通运输用地(0.730 8)、牧草地(0.765 1)和园地(0.821 5);建设用地与碳排放量关联度大。结论]土地利用结构与碳排放的关系密切,通过科学合理地利用土地利用结构变化对碳收支的影响作用对土地利用结构进行调整,从而实现控制碳排放量是可行的。

Correlation Between Land Use Structure and Carbon Emission in Urumqi City

Objective] The relationship between land use structure and carbon emission in Urumqi City was analyzed, and their correlation and the change characteristics were demonatrated analyzed in a certain time range, so as to explore a way to reduce carbon emission reduction from land use and to provide reference for rational utilization of lands and for the simultaneous improvements of ecological, economic and social effects.Methods] Based on the data of land change and energy consumption in Urumqi City during 2001-2015, carbon emission, carbon emissions intensity and per capita carbon emissions were estimated. Grey relational degree model was constructed to measure the correlation degrees between land use structure and the above three variables.Results] The carbon emission increased by nearly 2.6 times, from 8.31 million tons to 21 million tons during 2001-2015 in Urumqi City. The highest correlations between land use structure and variables of carbon emission, carbon intensity and per capita carbon emission listed as below:transportation land was 0.730 8, grassland was 0.765 1 and garden land was 0.821 5. And construction land was highly correlated with carbon emission.Conclusion] Land use structure is closely related to the carbon emission, and it is feasible to control carbon emission through reasonable adjustment of land use structure.