陕西省土地利用碳排放影响因素及脱钩效应分析

通过测算陕西省2001—2014年土地利用碳排放量，采用LMDI分解法探讨了土地利用碳排放变化的影响因素，并基于因素分解的结果构建脱钩弹性分解量化模型对经济增长和土地利用碳排放的脱钩效应进行分析。主要结论如下:（1）2001—2014年，陕西省土地利用碳排放量呈逐年递增趋势，13年间上升163%。（2）能源强度是唯一抑制土地利用碳排放增加的负效应因素，正效应因素对陕西省土地利用碳排放增加的贡献值由大到小依次为经济规模效应 > 能源碳排放强度效应 > 人口规模效应 > 土地规模效应；（3）各影响因素对土地利用碳排放与经济增长脱钩的贡献由大到小依次为经济规模效应 > 能源强度效应 > 能源碳排放强度效应 > 人口规模效应 > 土地规模效应，且能源强度效应对经济增长与土地利用碳排放脱钩状态的改善具有积极作用。研究结论有利于清晰了解土地利用碳排放影响因素及其影响经济增长和土地利用碳排放脱钩的内在作用机理，从而得出相应的碳减排政策启示。

Influencing Factors on Carbon Emissions of Land Uses and Analysis of Their Decoupling Effects in Shaanxi Province

According to the measurement method of carbon emission, carbon emissions of land uses in Shaanxi Province from 2001 to 2014 were calculated. We used LMDI method to explore the main factors that affect the changes of carbon emissions of land uses, and established the model of decoupling elasticity decomposition to analyze decoupling effects between the economic growth and carbon emission of land use. The results showed that:(1) the total carbon emissions of land uses increased gradually from 2001 to 2014 in Shaanxi Province, and increased by 163% during the thirteen years; (2) the energy intensity was the only inhibiting effect and decreased carbon emissions of land uses, the positive effect factors which contribute to the increase of carbon emissions of land uses decreased in the order:economic scale > carbon emission intensity of energy > population size > land scale; (3) all effect factors which contribute to decoupling between the economic growth and carbon emission decreased in the order of:economic scale > energy intensity > carbon emission intensity of energy > population size > land scale, energy intensity played the positive role in improving decoupling state between the economic growth and carbon emission of land use. The above results shall be conducive to understanding the influencing factors on carbon emissions of land uses and how these factors affect the internal mechanism between the economic growth and carbon emission, which can provide appropriate policy implications of reduction of carbon emissions.