基于投影寻踪模型的河南省耕地生态安全评价

耕地生态安全关系到粮食供给、社会稳定和经济社会可持续发展，对河南省2006—2015年的耕地生态安全状况从时空角度进行了分析评价，为指导区域耕地合理、可持续利用提供科学依据。运用PSR模型构建了耕地生态安全评价指标体系，运用准确度较高的投影寻踪模型进行了评价指数的测算。结果表明:（1）人均耕地面积、单位耕地面积化肥负荷、第一产业占GDP比重、耕地垦殖率、城镇化水平已经成为影响河南省耕地生态安全状况的主要因素；（2）研究期间，河南省耕地生态安全综合评价值从0.893 7增加至0.941 9，呈现出“快速上升—缓慢下降—波动上升”的阶段性发展态势；（3）根据耕地生态安全综合评价值的变化规律，将18个评价单元从时间维上分为快速上升区、慢速上升区和基本稳定区3种类型，在空间维上分为安全级别、良好级别、敏感级别、风险级别、危险级别5种划分类型；（4）2006—2015年，除了郑州，其他17个省辖市耕地生态安全综合评价值均呈上升态势，城镇化水平、人口密度、人均耕地面积、第一产业占GDP比重是影响郑州耕地生态安全的主要因素。

Evaluation on Farmland Ecological Security in Henan Province Based on Projection Pursuit Model

The ecological security of cultivated land is related to grain crops, social stability and sustainable development of economy and society. The ecological security status of cultivated land in Henan Province during 2006—2015 was analyzed and evaluated from the perspective of time and space, which could provide the basis for guiding the rational and sustainable utilization of cultivated land. The evaluation index system of cultivated land ecological security was constructed by using PSR model, and the projection pursuit model with higher accuracy was used to calculate the evaluation index. The results were as follows. (1) The per capita arable land area, chemical fertilizer load of the unit cultivated land area, the first industry accounted for the proportion of GDP, land reclamation rate index, the level of urbanization have become the main influencing factors on cultivated land ecological security in Henan Province. (2) During the study period, the comprehensive evaluation of the ecological security of cultivated land in Henan increased from 0.893 7 to 0.941 9, showing a ‘rapid rise-slow decline-rising volatility’ stage of development. (3) According to the variation of comprehensive evaluation of land ecological security value, the 18 evaluation units can be divided into three types including rapid rise level area, slow rise level area and basic stability level area in time dimension, and five types including security level, good level, sensitive level, risk level, risk level in space dimension. (4) During 2006-2015, in addition to Zhengzhou City, the other cities were on the rise on the ecological security evaluation of farmland, the level of urbanization, per capita arable land area, the first industry accounted for the proportion of GDP, the density of population have become the main influencing factors on cultivated land ecological security in Zhengzhou City.