吉林省冰雹时空特点及冰雹过程评估

利用1951—2013年50站天气现象观测资料、冰雹灾情资料，分析了吉林省冰雹的时空特征，利用灰色关联度、百分位数、正态分布等方法建立了冰雹过程指数、冰雹过程评估等级指标、气候重现期指标。结果表明：吉林省1957—1986年为冰雹偏多阶段，1951—1956年、1987—2013年为偏少阶段；冰雹多发生在春夏之交；日内多发生在午后到傍晚前后，夜间较少出现；空间分布呈东西少、中南部地区多的特点。冰雹过程的时间变化规律和冰雹时间发生规律类似。对冰雹过程不仅可以进行排位、等级、气候重现期等方面的评估，还可以进行持续日数、覆盖范围、持续时间、最大冰雹直径等的评估，可操作性强，实现了在实际业务中对冰雹过程多角度快速评估的目的，对提高冰雹过程的应急响应和服务能力意义重大。

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Hail and Evaluation of Hail Weather Process in Jilin Province

Utilizing hail day records and hail disaster data of 50 meteorological stations in Jilin Province from 1951 to 2013, spatial-temporal characteristics of hail were analyzed. By using grey correlation degree, percentile and normal distribution, the hail weather process index, evaluation level indicator and climate return period indicator were established. The results showed that the hail occurrence in Jilin Province was more from 1957 to 1986, and less during 1951-1956 and 1987-2013. Hail usually happened in late spring or early summer and it occurred from afternoon to sunset but less at night. The spatial distribution showed that: the hail occurred more in the south-central region of Jilin Province, but less in the east and west of Jilin Province. The time changing law of the hail process was similar to the hail occurrence regularity. The hail weather process could be evaluated not only with orders, grades and climate return period, but also with continuous days, coverage, duration and the maximum hail diameter. These methods, which had strong maneuverability and could realize the purpose of hail rapid assessment in actual business from multiple perspectives, could be used to improve the emergency response to hail weather process and enhance the service ability.