营口地区一次局地暴雨过程的成因及预报偏差分析

2022年7月17日营口地区出现一次局地暴雨过程，整体降水量级预报把握较差，因而对环流形势、物理量场、数值预报模式进行分析。结果表明：此次局地暴雨过程出现在高空急流出口区左侧，高空冷涡底后部的西北气流中，低层配合有冷切及地面低压的有利动力强迫机制下，具备充沛的水汽条件及一定的位势不稳定层结，造成此次降水过程预报偏差的主要原因是大尺度环流形势的预报偏差。前期的天气形势较预报的强度偏弱、位置偏东，造成主观预报对后续发展的估计不足。

Analysis of the causes and forecast deviations of a localized rainstorm in Yingkou area

On July 17, 2022, there was a localized rainstorm process in Yingkou area, the overall precipitation level forecast was poorly grasped, and after analyzing the circulation situation, physical quantity field and numerical forecast, the results showed that the local rainstorm process appeared on the left side of the high-altitude rapids outlet area, in the northwest air flow behind the high-altitude cold vortex bottom, the low layer was combined with the favorable dynamic forcing mechanism of cold cutting and ground low pressure, coupled with abundant water vapor conditions and a certain potential unstable stratum. The main reason for the forecast deviation of this precipitation process is the forecast deviation of the large-scale circulation situation. The previous weather situation was weaker than the forecast, and the location was eastward, resulting in subjective forecasts underestimating subsequent developments.