广东省蚕茧供给反应和收益的实证分析

为有利于政府采取有效的支持政策促进蚕茧生产和实现蚕农增产增收,依据广东省1980~2004年蚕茧的产量、收益、价格、国家定购数量,以及桑树种植面积、物质费用、劳动费用和自然灾害等时间序列样本数据,并基于蚕茧供给反应模型和利润模型,实证分析了广东省蚕茧价格和生产成本等因素对蚕茧供给和收益的影响。结果表明:广东省蚕茧产量、种植面积和收益对价格的反应十分显著;提高价格和产量可明显增加蚕农收益;增加生产成本虽然可以提高产量,但会减少桑树种植规模和蚕农收益;国家定购政策对广东省的蚕茧生产发展影响重大;从时间趋势上看,广东省的蚕茧生产总量和规模存在递减趋势,并且早、晚稻的种植对蚕茧生产存在竞争性关系。

A Positive Analysis of Supply Response and Income of Silkworm Cocoon in Guangdong Province

In order to benefit the government to take effective action to promote silkworm cocoon production and to increase farmer's yield and income,the influence of price and production cost of silkworm cocoon on the supply and income was empirically analysed with the Supply Response Model and Profit Model for silkworm cocoon,based on serial data of silkworm cocoon yield,income,price and the acreage under mulberry trees,cost of materials and labours,natural calamities,etc.,in Guangdong Province from 1980 to 2004.The results showed that the responses of cocoon yield,mulberry planting acreage and income to price were very significant;enhance of price and yield could increase farmer's income remarkably;and that increase of cost increased cocoon yield,but impaired mulberry planting acreage and farmer's income.It also showed that national order policy for cocoon exerted an important influence on the development of cocoon production in Guangdong.As time goes on the total output of silkworm cocoon and planting acreage showed a decreasing trend and there was a competitive relationship between cocoon production and rice production.