人民币实际汇率影响蔬菜出口的动态效应分析

运用基于VAR模型的协整检验和脉冲函数对实行汇改以来人民币实际汇率和蔬菜出口的月度数据进行实证分析,同时计算此间蔬菜的出口需求价格弹性。结果表明:人民币实际汇率对蔬菜出口的长期波动出口弹性系数较大;人民币实际汇率波动对蔬菜出口的影响在短期内存在着非常明显的J曲线效应,拐点滞后期为1个月;我国蔬菜出口需求价格弹性大是J曲线效应显著的主要原因。

Studies on dynamic impacts of RMB real exchange rate on vegetables export

Based on cointegration test of the VAR model and the pulse response function,this paper conducts an empirical analysis on monthly data of the real exchange rate and vegetables export since the RMB exchange reform,and calculates export demand price elasticity of vegetables during the elected sample period.The findings suggest that the elasticity of RMB real exchange rate against vegetables export is great in the long run,and its J-curve effect is observable in the short term with 1-month lag period of inflec...